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16 Apr 2014
Chinese growth slowdown, UK unemployment expected to decline
FXStreet (London) - Official Chinese GDP data released overnight showed that growth had fallen to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. The 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth represents the lowest level since the third quarter of 2010.
Usual questionable official Chinese data
While the GDP print managed to beat consensus expectations of a decline to 7.3 percent, as always the numbers have to be taken with a large pinch of salt. The data for the ~USD8.4 trillion economy was ostensibly compiled and analysed within 15 days of the end of the quarter.
Year-to-date Chinese retail sales gained 12 percent, beating expectations of an 11.9 percent rise. For March, retail sales were up 12.2 percent.
Industrial production gained 8.8 percent year-on-year in March, below expectations of a 9 percent increase.
UK unemployment numbers expected to dip
UK ILO unemployment numbers due at 9:30 GMT are expected to dip lower after a small rebound in January. Expectations are for a decline to 7.1 percent, close to the now defunct 7 percent threshold set by Mark Carney in his original forward guidance. After yesterday’s four-and-a-half-year low UK interest rates, wage growth may be more in focus than the overall joblessness numbers. Expectations are for an acceleration to 1.8 percent, however we may see it rise further and help to ease the pressure on real wages.
Eurozone inflation expected to confirm initial reading
The final reading of Eurozone March inflation numbers is due at 10:00 GMT, which will almost certainly confirm the initial reading of 0.5 percent year-on-year growth. However, the more detailed final reading may give some clues as to whether we can expect a rebound in April
Combined with the continuing labour market struggles facing the majority of the currency bloc, today’s numbers will simply add to the speculation surrounding potential QE-type action from the European Central Bank.
Usual questionable official Chinese data
While the GDP print managed to beat consensus expectations of a decline to 7.3 percent, as always the numbers have to be taken with a large pinch of salt. The data for the ~USD8.4 trillion economy was ostensibly compiled and analysed within 15 days of the end of the quarter.
Year-to-date Chinese retail sales gained 12 percent, beating expectations of an 11.9 percent rise. For March, retail sales were up 12.2 percent.
Industrial production gained 8.8 percent year-on-year in March, below expectations of a 9 percent increase.
UK unemployment numbers expected to dip
UK ILO unemployment numbers due at 9:30 GMT are expected to dip lower after a small rebound in January. Expectations are for a decline to 7.1 percent, close to the now defunct 7 percent threshold set by Mark Carney in his original forward guidance. After yesterday’s four-and-a-half-year low UK interest rates, wage growth may be more in focus than the overall joblessness numbers. Expectations are for an acceleration to 1.8 percent, however we may see it rise further and help to ease the pressure on real wages.
Eurozone inflation expected to confirm initial reading
The final reading of Eurozone March inflation numbers is due at 10:00 GMT, which will almost certainly confirm the initial reading of 0.5 percent year-on-year growth. However, the more detailed final reading may give some clues as to whether we can expect a rebound in April
Combined with the continuing labour market struggles facing the majority of the currency bloc, today’s numbers will simply add to the speculation surrounding potential QE-type action from the European Central Bank.