USD/TRY could slip back to 5.6972 – Commerzbank

Axel Rudolph, Senior Analyst at Commerzbank, sees the pair could retest the 5.6972 level as long as it trades below the recent all-time high beyond the 7.0 handle.

Key Quotes

“This week USD/TRY is expected to consolidate further around the 6.5000 mark, having come off its 7.1310 all-time high (according to CQG) to its mid-August low at 5.6972 before rising again”.

“While remaining below the 7.1310 high another slip towards the 5.6972 mid-August low is likely to be seen. This week we expect to see further range trading below the 7.0000/7.1310 area to be witnessed. Below the 5.6972 level lies the early August high at 5.4209”.

“Further down the four month support line can be spotted at 5.3263. While it holds, upside pressure should be maintained with a rise above the 7.1310 high still looking possible. Were the 7.1310 high to be bettered, the 423.5% Fibonacci extension of the 2008 to 2014 advance, projected higher from the 2014 low, at 7.3179 would be in focus. Then there is no potential resistance to speak of until the psychological 8.0000 mark and a vertical hourly 0.005 x 3 Point & Figure target at 8.6650”.