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GBP/USD shifting around the bottom ahead of the BoE interest rate decision

  • Sterling holding just above 1.3550 as the Bank of England comes in for a landing with their rate call, which is expected to fizzle.
  • US CPI figures are complicating the issue for traders, leaving a lot of market participants on the sidelines until the last minute.

The GBP/USD is sticking to 1.3560 ahead of the European market session, and a tense Super Thursday is lined up for the Cable this week.

Markets were broadly expecting a rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) today, but recent economic data from the UK has forced the BoE's Mark Carney to walk back his hawkish rhetoric (not for the first time), and the GBP has taken a hammering, falling for three straight weeks as markets have priced in a sudden lack of movement from the central bank, and markets are now expecting a rate hike from the BoE this August.

The action kicks off at 08:30 GMT with Manufacturing figures from the UK, and year-on-year Manufacturing Production numbers for March are expected to swing from the previous 2.5% to 2.9%. at 11:00 GMT the real business starts and the BoE drops their rate decision and Monetary Policy Summary. 

GBP/USD: Delay in Bank of England rate hike priced-in?

Shortly after the BoE'st rate decision, markets shift their focus to the US CPI figures hitting at 12:30 GMT. US Core CPI is expected at 2.2%, an uptick from the previous 2.1%, and traders are looking for economic figures to continue beating expectations, bringing the US Fed to raise interest rates three more times this year, with only two more rate hikes currently penciled in.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As noted by FXStreet's own Omkar Godbole, "a close today above the 10-day moving average would add credence to the bearish exhaustion as indicated by the multiple doji candles and could yield consolidation in the short-term. Major resistance is seen at 1.3712 (March 1 low) and 1.3825 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off). On the downside,  a close below 1.3485 (recent low) would signal a continuation of the sell-off. The 5-day MA and the 10-day MA are still trending south, indicating a bearish setup. Support is seen at 1.3462, 38.2% 2017/2018 rally and 1.3301 (Dec. 15 low)."

 

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