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18 Feb 2014
Flash: Broader EUR/USD risk is lower and gains can be faded - TD Securities
FXStreet (Barcelona) - TD Securities strategists note that EUR/USD is nudging back towards the upper end of the recent trading range but without much of a strong sense of conviction; German data today was a little disappointing and the broader recovery in the Eurozone remains fragile.
Key Quotes
“Weak credit growth and low inflation remain concerns for policy makers and we think that further policy action from the ECB to address these issues still cannot be fully excluded as a risk in the next few months.”
“There seems little to justify the EUR’s ongoing resilience—even from a backward-looking perspective; December’s Eurozone current account data revealed a net outflow on the portfolio account and not the massive inflows that were widely rumored to have been the basis for the EUR’s strong year-end performance.”
“We still rather think the broader risk in EURUSD is lower and that gains (to the upper end of the recent trading range —1.37/1.38)are to be faded.”
Key Quotes
“Weak credit growth and low inflation remain concerns for policy makers and we think that further policy action from the ECB to address these issues still cannot be fully excluded as a risk in the next few months.”
“There seems little to justify the EUR’s ongoing resilience—even from a backward-looking perspective; December’s Eurozone current account data revealed a net outflow on the portfolio account and not the massive inflows that were widely rumored to have been the basis for the EUR’s strong year-end performance.”
“We still rather think the broader risk in EURUSD is lower and that gains (to the upper end of the recent trading range —1.37/1.38)are to be faded.”