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1 Feb 2016
NZD/AUD: 0.9250 levels should cap the upside - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Market Strategist at Westpac, suggests that the 0.9250 level should cap the NZD/AUD cross this week, with a break below 0.9110 expected.
Key Quotes
“Global sentiment plus a good run of economic data favour continuing AUD outperformance. There may be little tension over the RBA decision on the cash rate on Tue but the statement will be perused closely as always. Also out are the Dec trade balance and building approvals (Wed), and Jan’s TD inflation gauge.
3 months:
Our main argument for a lower cross (sub-0.91 multi-month) is the RBNZ is expected to ease again this year, whereas the RBA should remain on hold for some time. In addition, demand for AUD should get a boost from M&A activity. Risks to this view is the performance of the Chinese stockmarket and global commodities, which typically affect the AUD more than the NZD.
1 year:
We expect the cross to trade at 0.90 or below in a year’s time.”
Key Quotes
“Global sentiment plus a good run of economic data favour continuing AUD outperformance. There may be little tension over the RBA decision on the cash rate on Tue but the statement will be perused closely as always. Also out are the Dec trade balance and building approvals (Wed), and Jan’s TD inflation gauge.
3 months:
Our main argument for a lower cross (sub-0.91 multi-month) is the RBNZ is expected to ease again this year, whereas the RBA should remain on hold for some time. In addition, demand for AUD should get a boost from M&A activity. Risks to this view is the performance of the Chinese stockmarket and global commodities, which typically affect the AUD more than the NZD.
1 year:
We expect the cross to trade at 0.90 or below in a year’s time.”