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27 Jan 2016
FOMC to take a pass – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Regarding today’s Fed meeting, DB’s Peter Hooper expects the FOMC to take a pass on policy.
Key Quotes
“The primary issue of interest is what sort of message they will send about policy going forward. Because significant data are yet to come before the March 15-16 meeting, the Committee will probably want to leave its options open for another rate hike at that meeting.
That said, the news since the December meeting has on balance not been supportive of further tightening any time soon. Financial conditions have deteriorated enough to subtract as much as half a percentage point from GDP growth if sustained. And the Committee has emphasized the importance of incoming data to their decisions going forward.
So they will have the delicate task of acknowledging the recent deterioration in economic and financial conditions while at the same time leaving the door open for a possible interest rate move in March if the recent deterioration proves to have been temporary. If there were a surprise, Hooper thinks it would more likely be on the dovish side - closing the door on March seems more likely than bolstering the message that four hikes are "in the ball park."
Key Quotes
“The primary issue of interest is what sort of message they will send about policy going forward. Because significant data are yet to come before the March 15-16 meeting, the Committee will probably want to leave its options open for another rate hike at that meeting.
That said, the news since the December meeting has on balance not been supportive of further tightening any time soon. Financial conditions have deteriorated enough to subtract as much as half a percentage point from GDP growth if sustained. And the Committee has emphasized the importance of incoming data to their decisions going forward.
So they will have the delicate task of acknowledging the recent deterioration in economic and financial conditions while at the same time leaving the door open for a possible interest rate move in March if the recent deterioration proves to have been temporary. If there were a surprise, Hooper thinks it would more likely be on the dovish side - closing the door on March seems more likely than bolstering the message that four hikes are "in the ball park."