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18 Mar 2015
More steps from SNB to come? - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that in the aftermath of the break of the Swiss floor they assess the damage to the Swiss economy.
Key Quotes:
"Recent soft economic indicators are pointing to a slowdown in economic growth in the coming months. For example, the purchasing managers index has dropped below the 50-mark and all subcomponents contributed to the decline."
"As the SNB has also lowered the rate on excess sight deposits (>20x the required reserves), Swiss money market rates have dropped significantly."
"We estimate the impact of the exchange rate shock on the economy via a vector error correction model. We find that the largest impact will be on exports and imports, but also consumer spending and investment spending are likely to decline. However, the effects come with a delay and we expect the largest impact in the third and fourth quarter of this year. We therefore expect a very meagre growth for Switzerland in 2015 (0.2%) and 2016 (0.5%)."
"Going forward we foresee more steps from the SNB as the ECB has only just commenced its bond buying programme."
Key Quotes:
"Recent soft economic indicators are pointing to a slowdown in economic growth in the coming months. For example, the purchasing managers index has dropped below the 50-mark and all subcomponents contributed to the decline."
"As the SNB has also lowered the rate on excess sight deposits (>20x the required reserves), Swiss money market rates have dropped significantly."
"We estimate the impact of the exchange rate shock on the economy via a vector error correction model. We find that the largest impact will be on exports and imports, but also consumer spending and investment spending are likely to decline. However, the effects come with a delay and we expect the largest impact in the third and fourth quarter of this year. We therefore expect a very meagre growth for Switzerland in 2015 (0.2%) and 2016 (0.5%)."
"Going forward we foresee more steps from the SNB as the ECB has only just commenced its bond buying programme."