Fading USD rallies in case of a stronger CPI report – TDS

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Canada decision will take center stage today. Economists at TD Securities their implications for the US Dollar and the USD/JPY and USD/CAD pairs.

USD/CAD to stay within a 1.3380-1.3550 range

“We are hard-pressed to see the prevailing bias of fading USD extremes (rallies in the case of a stronger CPI report).” 

“Much of FX has been directionless and we think this could persist until we obtain certainty over how Fed easing could take shape (which is still a ways away we think) and/or NFP materially weakens.”

“USD/JPY's bid into 134 is notable but is coalescing into a triangle pattern formed from the 2022 highs and 2023 uptrend support. A break of either would be meaningful but we reckon these technicals should hold for now.” 

“Meanwhile, the BoC is expected to leave policy unchanged, and we would expect to see 1.3380/00/1.3550 as key technical markers that should hold.”

See: 

• US CPI: Banks Preview, inflation softening, good news on the horizon?

• BoC Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, staying on the sidelines