USDCAD to hit 1.39 by year-end before moving back lower toward 1.30 by end-Q2 2023 – NBF

The Loonie continues to struggle as we enter the home stretch of the year. Economists at the National Bank of Canada expect USDCAD to end the year at 1.39 and turn back lower next year toward 1.30 by the end of Q2 2023.

Canadian potential GDP growth to exceed that in the US

“With inflation cooling faster in Canada than in the US and the BoC unlikely to overtake the Fed in the coming months we do not see opportunities for a significant strengthening of the CAD against the USD until an FOMC pivot, which we expect in H1 2023.”

“We see the possibility of a significant appreciation of the CAD against the greenback to reflect Canada's improved economic growth profile driven by upgraded immigration targets.”

“If material progress on inflation is secured in the coming months and US monetary policy can be made less restrictive before too much damage to the global economy is done, the outlook for CAD may prove far less problematic than some now fear.” 

“We still see USDCAD at 1.39 at the end of Q4 2022 and at 1.30 at the end of Q2 2023.”